Sunday, November 9, 2008

Who's still profitable in times of crisis?

The last two months trained us to put up with bad news every day. We get up in the morning and open the newspaper with one idea in mind: 
which bank went bust this time? 
whom does the government rescue today?
or 
who is is taking over whom?

However, even in such difficult times there are some companies that have not only kept their profitability level, but increased it. 

So, who are they? What are their strategies so that we can transfer them to other industries?

One industry is the oil industry. Companies such as: Exxon Mobile, Royal Dutch Shell have announced increasing profits in the third quarter. 

The key question is: why?

Recall the situation on the market a few months ago, when the oil prices rocketed to $147 / barrel. At that point in time, these companies didn't suffer as they had oil reserves for a few months time. On the contrary... they used the market conditions to transfer the increase in price to the end consumers. As such, they registered increasing turnover, while keeping the same cost level. 

And now? 
Now, the price of the barrel has plummeted to $64, thus these companies can secure their oil reserves for a few months time at low prices. Thus, they won't be affected short term by the expected price increase to $100 / barrel. 

So, are they the winners?
For now, they are the winners. However, the effect of the crisis will be visible in their income statements in a few months time, because of the lower fuel prices and because of the consumers' tendency to drive less and choose more fuel efficient cars.

That is, this strategy is not sustainable in the long-run. That's why we see oil companies diversify in related fields such as regenerable energies, which is definitely  a high potential market in the future.

Finally, the oil industry is not the only one who doesn't suffer in times of crisis. Other industries are: pharma, tabbacco and consumer staples, known in the investors' world as "defensive industries". 

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